Tropical Depression 11 Churning in Central Atlantic; Watchful Eye on Gulf

 

Tropical Depression 11, about 1,100 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, formed in the Atlantic Basin early on Saturday night. The storm will not pose a threat to land over the next five to seven days as it meanders across the central Atlantic Ocean. Despite this, sea vessels near the storm's center can expect slightly higher waves and swells.

Southwesterly wind shear over the depression is helping to displace some of the storms to the north and east; however, environmental conditions should be just favorable enough for some additional strengthening of this depression on Sunday. Thus, Tropical Depression 11 should become Tropical Storm Jerry sometime on Sunday afternoon or night.

As for the track, T.D. 11 will move slowly off to the east-northeast over the next day before ducking southward. Thereafter, the storm will briefly move toward the northwest, performing a loop, and ending up near its current position. By late week, T.D. 11 will be swept off to the north and east by a trough that is currently over the Midwest.

A second area of interest is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms situated across the central Caribbean. These showers and thunderstorms are gradually expected to become better organized next week as they drift northwestward into and through the northern Caribbean.

An enhanced threat for heavier showers and thunderstorms are likely across central and western Cuba next week as deeper tropical moisture moves across the country. By the end of next week, the feature of interest will likely migrate into the warm waters of the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico where further development into an organized tropical system is possible. This feature will have to be watched closely.