Two Tropical Waves to Watch

The Atlantic Basin remains void of any organized tropical systems. 

 

 However, we are focusing in on two areas that are producing disturbed weather that could evolve into organized tropical features.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean and another tropical wave just east of the Lesser Antilles is generating a large area of disturbed weather that covers a large part of the eastern Caribbean. The main area of organized convection is to the south and east of Puerto Rico. This low and the large cyclonic flow around it will interact with the higher terrain of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico during the next two-three days which may inhibit development.

Nevertheless, recent satellite imagery has shown convection becoming better organized around a low center, and this system may become better organized today, possibly becoming a tropical depression or storm. There is an area of shear draped across the northern Caribbean and this system will have to interact with that through the rest of the week and into Saturday, which should inhibit further development. This shear should diminish on Saturday night and Sunday allowing the system to re-develop north of Hispaniola around Sunday and Monday of next week. Computer forecasts show support for development and take this system north, then northeast. This does not appear to be a path that would bring any direct impacts to the United States.

A large area of disturbed weather over the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula is projected to slowly work westward. We don't see a defined low pressure area yet, but there is some cyclonic turning in the overall cloud motion with this system. Shear will limit development during the next 24 hours, then there is an opportunity for low pressure to become established over the southern Bay of Campeche on Thursday and Friday.