Ingrid forms in the Bay of Campeche

 

Over the next 24 hours, the system will only drift to the west and northwest. The system will then begin to move a bit faster Saturday evening into Sunday off to the northwest, and we are expecting landfall Sunday evening along the Mexican coast just to the north of Tampico.

At the time of landfall, the system should be a strong tropical storm and perhaps even near hurricane status. Beyond landfall, the system will weaken quickly on Monday and Tuesday as it moves into the interior of Mexico but will continue to bring torrential rainfall through at least next Tuesday across parts of Mexico and South Texas.

The main impacts from Tropical Storm Ingrid will be the heavy, flooding rainfall across much of southern and eastern Mexico over the next several days. Deep tropical moisture from this system and Tropical Depression 13 off the southwest coast of Mexico will be forced up into the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains will bring rainfall totals of 6-12 inches with the potential for localized totals of over 20 inches in the mountains. This torrential rainfall will lead to severe life-threatening flooding and mudslides over much of eastern Mexico through this weekend and into early next week. Some of the rich tropical moisture from this system will reach deep South Texas bringing rainfall totals of 2-4 inches this weekend into early next week.