Jerry Remains No Threat to Land; Watching the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly meander through the central Atlantic. It remains the only organized tropical system across the Atlantic Basin, but we continue to watch an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea for possible development.

Recent satellite imagery shows that Jerry is being impacted by wind shear from the north which is hampering further development. The center of circulation has also drifted southward over the last few hours. Steering flow will remain weak over the next 24 to 48 hours and Jerry will continue to slowly drift around the central Atlantic and not affect land. Toward the end of the week, we expect Jerry will turn more to the north and east as steering winds increase due to a storm system approaching from the west. We do not expect Jerry to become a threat to any land mass at least through this week.

A second area of interest is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave situated across the western Caribbean. These showers and thunderstorms could become better organized as they drift northwestward and then northward into and through the northern Caribbean through midweek. An enhanced threat for heavier showers and thunderstorms will continue in Jamaica and central and western Cuba today as deeper tropical moisture moves through. We expect to see showers and thunderstorms with drenching downpours move into the Yucatan Peninsula by Wednesday.

After that, this will likely migrate into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. This feature will have to be watched closely as a depression or storm can form in this area while the wave tracks westward. The waters all across the western Caribbean are very warm, about 86 degrees F and are generally 83-86 degrees in the Gulf of Mexico, so there is plenty of fuel available for any tropical cyclone that might form in this area.

There are currently no other areas of concern in the Atlantic Basin.