Monitoring Tropical Waves

Monitoring Tropical Waves: Lesser Antilles, Bay of Campeche; Shear, Dry Air Halt Eastern Atlantic Development.

 

There are plenty of tropical waves to monitor in the Atlantic Basin, but some will require more focus than others through the middle of this week.
A pair of tropical waves located near and just east of the Lesser Antilles continue to produce widespread downpours and thunderstorms in an area from the Lesser Antilles east to about 50 west.

A broad area of surface low pressure is also associated with this activity. While wind shear remains low across this area, there is a pocket of dry air just to the north, between 17 and 20 north. This dry air to the north is being circulated into these waves, helping to inhibit development at this time. The dry air is expected to wane through Wednesday as this area of disturbed weather moves west-northwest. The diminishing dry air could be enough to help spur some tropical development over the next couple of days somewhere between 75 and 60 west, south of 25 north. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will impact areas from the Lesser Antilles to Hispaniola this week.

Farther west, a tropical wave moving into the Bay of Campeche will have to be monitored over the next couple of days. While the wave is producing a broad area of tropical downpours and thunderstorms across parts of Central America and southern Mexico, it is very disorganized. Wind shear may limit the potential for tropical development in the Bay of Campeche Wednesday into Thursday, but there will be plenty of warm water to help fuel a potential system. Either way, locally heavy rain will produce flash flooding and mudslide risks over parts of Central America and southern Mexico over the next few days.

Meanwhile, a tropical wave is coming off of the African coast in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. There is a good amount of shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this wave, but it may have some difficulty becoming better organized with some wind shear and dry air in the region. Nonetheless, it will have to be monitored for development over the next few days.
Elsewhere, there are no signifiant threats for development across the remainder of the basin.