Tropical Depression 9 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Humberto

We are currently tracking several features over the Atlantic basin, but only two of them are any sort of imminent threat.

Tropical Depression 9 has intensified into Tropical Storm Humberto early this morning southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. It is in a favorable environment for further development over the next 24 to 48 hours. Through Monday and Tuesday, a west-northwestward track will carry the storm's center a short distance south of the Cape Verde Islands.

Humberto will bring some wind and rain to the Cape Verde Islands, the severity of which will depend upon how quickly the depression strengthens. The potential exists for damaging winds to develop as the storm strengthens further while passing nearby to the south. Therefore, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the southern Cape Verde Islands of Maio, Santiago, Fogo and Brava.

After that, all computer guidance shows this system heading northwestward into the dry and stable air over the middle of the Atlantic in the coming days. That combined with increasing shear should cause it to weaken. That being said, it has a chance to become the seasons first hurricane by Tuesday before it reaches the unfavorable environment. Once clear of the Cape Verde Islands, it will be several days before it affects another land mass, if it ever does have any impact on land again.

The next feature of interest is the tropical wave along 40 west, south of 25 north, over the middle of the tropical Atlantic. There is a turning in the clouds with this wave, but it is embedded in a generally dry air mass and it is sheared somewhat as well with the upper winds south-southwesterly, so despite the decent amount of thunderstorm activity associated with this system, further development is unlikely.

Of greater concern are the remnants of Gabrielle currently west-southwest of Bermuda. This feature is looking somewhat better organized than yesterday although it remains sheared due to upper-level southerly winds. The upper winds likely become even more unfavorable starting on Monday. Either way, it will stay east of the United States and is only a concern for Bermuda at this point. It will bring some squally weather to that island on Monday night through Tuesday even if it does not return to life as a tropical cyclone.

Finally, there is a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean. There is no sign of further development here, either, but this feature will have to be watched next week once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche and joins forces with a disorganized disturbance currently generating thunderstorms there.