Freitag, 1. August 2014

Tropical Storm Bertha

Bertha is a sheared tropical cyclone with the center located on the
western edge of the deep convection as indicated by satellite. The
low-level circulation continues to be vigorous, but given the
current westerly shear the outflow is very limited. There are no
reasons to change the initial intensity which is kept at 40 knots.
Another Air Force reconnaissance plane will investigate Bertha in
the next several hours.
The current shear environment is not particularly favorable for
strengthening, but there are some indications by the global models
that the shear could decrease some as Bertha moves across the
northeastern Caribbean Sea. This should allow some slight
intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Once Bertha's
circulation moves away from Hispaniola beyond 48 hours, there is an
opportunity for additional strengthening if the shear becomes
lighter as suggested by global and statistical models. At this time,
the NHC forecast keeps Bertha with 45-knot winds over the
western Atlantic until it becomes more certain that the shear could
Bertha continues racing toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees
at 17 knots. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around the
Atlantic subtropical ridge which is forecast to persist. Once in
the western Atlantic near the eastern Bahamas, Bertha will be
steered by the southerly flow between the subtropical high
and a mid-level trough over the eastern United States. This pattern
will force Bertha to turn northward with a decrease in forward speed
and to eventually recurve northeastward over the Atlantic. 
The confidence in the track forecast, primarily in the next 2 to 3
days, is high since most the guidance is tightly clustered. The
confidence decreases after 3 days when the guidance becomes
divergent. The track envelope, however, brings Bertha northward
and then northeastward over the Atlantic, and the NHC forecast
follows closely the multi-model consensus.
Forecast positions and Max winds
Init  01/0900z 13.0n  57.0w   40 kt  45 mph
 12h  01/1800z 14.0n  59.6w   40 kt  45 mph
 24h  02/0600z 15.5n  63.0w   40 kt  45 mph
 36h  02/1800z 17.2n  66.0w   45 kt  50 mph
 48h  03/0600z 19.5n  68.8w   45 kt  50 mph
 72h  04/0600z 24.5n  73.5w   45 kt  50 mph
 96h  05/0600z 29.0n  74.0w   45 kt  50 mph
120h  06/0600z 35.0n  67.5w   45 kt  50 mph

Dienstag, 1. Juli 2014

Tropical Depression One Forms off the Coast of East Florida

The Atlantic's first tropical depression of 2014 is here, as Tropical Depression One finally formed at 11 pm EDT Monday evening from disturbance 91L. TD 1 was drifting southwest at 2 mph towards the east coast of Central Florida early Tuesday morning. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida on Tuesday morning showed that bands of heavy rain from TD 1 were affecting the Northwest Bahamas, and sustained winds of 33 mph gusting to 36 mph were observed at Settlement Point in the Northwest Bahama Islands at 2 am EDT.

Satellite loops showed heavy thunderstorms were limited to the south side of TD 1's center of circulation, and were slowly increasing in intensity and areal coverage. The counter-clockwise circulation of an upper level high pressure over Florida was bringing northerly winds over TD 1 at high altitude, and these winds were creating moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots. Water vapor satellite loops showed very dry air to the north of TD 1, and the northerly winds were driving this dry air in the heart of the storm, interfering with development, and keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will investigate TD 1 on Tuesday morning, and the NOAA jet is scheduled to fly Tuesday afternoon.

Samstag, 21. Juni 2014

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook for the Remainder of June

There were no tropical cyclones anywhere in the world on Friday, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis in the Atlantic (European, GFS, and UKMET) is predicting development over the coming five days. There is a tropical disturbance off the east coast of Florida that radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows some spin to. However, satellite loops show the area of heavy thunderstorms is very limited, and there is a lot of dry air interfering with thunderstorm development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10%. The disturbance will likely head northeast out to sea over the weekend.

Hurricane Forecast for the Remainder of June

Vertical wind shear is predicted to be very high over most of the tropical Atlantic the remainder of June, reducing the odds of tropical storm formation. With the active thunderstorm area of the MJO predicted to remain over the Pacific Ocean the rest of June, this will favor dry, sinking air over the Atlantic, further discouraging tropical storms from forming. 

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which are close to average over the Caribbean (an anomaly of +0.1°F) and cooler than average over the Gulf of Mexico (an anomaly of -0.2°F) will do no favors for any potential June tropical storms that try to form. If development does occur in June, the most likely location would be off the east coast of Florida, between the Bahamas and Bermuda, where SSTs are slightly above average and wind shear will be lower. Storms that form in this region are typically only a threat to Bermuda.

Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, six of the nineteen years (32%) did not have a named storm develop in June. I give an 80% chance that 2014 will join that list. The most recent year without a June named storm developing was the El Niño year of 2009. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. There were two June named storms in 2013, Andrea and Barry.

Donnerstag, 29. Mai 2014

Temblor Punta Cana - Mona Canal

El temblor fue de 6 grados y se produjeron cinco réplicas.


 El Instituto Sismológico de la Universidad Autónoma de Santo Domingo (UASD) informó que el temblor que se sintiò en gran parte del paìs ayer fue de 6 grados y que el epicentro se produjo en el Canal de la Mona, a 18 kilòmetros de Punta Cana.

Hasta ayer en la noche no se habían reportado daños materiales y tampoco humano, según el Centro de Operaciones de Emergencia (COE), organismo que llamó a la calma.

En un reporte preliminar, el COE informó, además, que el sismo se sintió en las provincias de La Altagracia, El Seibo, Hato Mayor, La Romana, San Pedro de Macorís y el Gran Santo Domingo.

En su primera informaciòn la pàgina web del Servicio Geològico de Estados Unidos dio a conocer que el movimiento telùrico fue de 5.3 grados y màs tarde corrigiò que fue de 5.8 grados.

Entrevistado vìa telefònica, Andrés Moreta, del Sismològico de la UASD, informò que el epicentro del temblor se produjo en la latitud 18.5 y longitude 68.2.

Reporte de la agencia EFE indican que el sismo se sintiò tambièn en la zona metropolitana de San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Cinco réplicas ayer 

Cinco réplicas se han registrado del sismo de 6 grados en la escala de Richter que se produjo en la tarde de hoy próximo a la provincia La Altagracia y que se sintió en gran parte del país.

Los movimientos telúricos han sido dos de 3.6, otro de 3.3, uno de 3.4 y de 3.0, según Andrés Moreta, analista de datos sísmico del Centro Nacional de Sismología (antiguo Instituto Sismológico de la Universidad Autónoma de Santo Domingo (UASD)

El temblor de 6 grados se produjo a las 5:15 de la tarde de hoy, en el Canal de la Mona y a 31 kilómetros de Boca de Yuma, en La Altagravcia, sin que se hayan reportado daños.

Moreta informó que veinte minutos después se registró una réplica de 3.6 grados en la latitud 17.93 y longitud 68.35, a unos 46 kilómetros al sureste de Mano Juan, en la Isla Saona, con epicentro en el mar Caribe y con una profundidad de 77 kilómetros

La segunda réplica fue a las 6:29 de la tarde, de 3.3 grados a 42 kilómetros al sureste de Punta Cana, también con epicentro en el Canal de la Mona y con una profundidad de 100 kilómetros.

El tercer temblor se produjo a las 6: 58 de la tarde, de 3 grados, con epicentro en el océano Atlántico y a 32 kilómetros al noreste de Las Terrenas. Otro de los eventos sísmicos fue a las 7:43 de la tarde, de 3.4 y al sureste de Mano Juan, en el mar Caribe, con una profundidad de 90 kilómetros.

A las 9:12 de la noche también se registró movimiento telúrico, de 3.6 en el mar Caribe y a 40 kilómetros de Mano Juan. Este tuvo una profundidad de 95 kilómetros.