The cloud pattern of Lorenzo has become better organized overnight and this morning. A burst of convection several hours ago has morphed into a central dense overcast with a band wrapping around the northern semicircle of the circulation.A series of microwave images have also shown a mid-level eye that is not coincident with the low-level center due to about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. Unlike yesterday...however...the low-level center is underneath the convective cloud canopy. A blend of TAFB/SAB Dvorak intensity estimates and the latest ADT values is used to raise the initial intensity to 45 kt.Any further intensification of Lorenzo...if any...is likely to occur soon since the cyclone should encounter a substantial increase in northwesterly shear and move over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures within 12 to 24 hours. The increase in shear should disrupt the vertical integrity of circulation and cause a decoupling of the cyclone in 24 to 36 hours.The system is likely become an open trough ahead of an advancing front by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is raised in the very short term to account for the greater initial wind speed...but like the previous one...shows rapid weakening by 48 hours. Dissipation is now forecast a day sooner in agreement with the global model guidance.Lorenzo has been moving with more of an eastward component of motion...and the initial motion estimate is 075/07. The cyclone should be steered east-northwestward during the next day or two between a mid-level ridge to the south and a belt of westerlies to the north.The track should Bend more toward the northeast in about 48 hours as the steering flow becoming southwesterly ahead of a cold front. The NHC track forecast is slightly right of the previous advisory through 36 hours but not as far right as the multi-model consensus.Forecast positions and Max windsinit 22/1500z 29.5n 52.0w 45 kt 50 mph 12h 23/0000z 29.6n 50.8w 45 kt 50 mph 24h 23/1200z 29.8n 49.7w 40 kt 45 mph 36h 24/0000z 30.3n 48.7w 35 kt 40 mph 48h 24/1200z 31.3n 47.4w 30 kt 35 mph 72h 25/1200z...dissipated
Dienstag, 22. Oktober 2013
Donnerstag, 3. Oktober 2013
An area of low pressure in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico has been officially named as Tropical Storm Karen. It is located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula, moving north-northwestward. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 mph.
Karen will track northward across the central Gulf of Mexico the next 24 hours then move on a more northeasterly course later tomorrow through Saturday. Current model output takes the system into an area between Gulfport, Miss., and Panama City, Florida late Saturday night or Sunday morning.
The storm has undergone rapid intensification and this intensification process appears to be over. The storm is encountering moderate wind shear causing the upper level part to be tilted into the northeast. The stronger thunderstorms and wind are displaced to the east and northeast of the low level center. This tilted structure and continued shear will limit and perhaps prevent further intensification.
However, if the shear decreases for a few hours it might have an opportunity to reach hurricane strength. Recent satellite images show the low level center exposed well west of the stronger thunderstorms suggesting that won't happen anytime soon. As the system approaches the coast Saturday night, it will encounter even stronger shear causing the storm to weaken.
The main impact from Karen will be heavy rainfall along the central and eastern Gulf coast Saturday and Saturday night. Since this area has experienced above normal rainfall the past couple of months flooding might occur over some areas that don't normally experience flooding. Despite weakening Karen will bring rough surf along the west coast of Florida westward to the southeast Louisiana coast leading to a high risk of rip currents, coastal flooding and beach erosion. Tropical storm-force winds will arrive along the coast later Saturday, Saturday night into Sunday morning.
There is also the possibility of severe weather, including isolated tornadoes, as Karen makes landfall, especially east of the storm center. Once inland, it will spin down and become a big rainmaker for the southeast and eastern U.S. Sunday into early next week.
Jerry has weakened to a depression and will become a non-tropical sheared low pressure area within a few days as it moves over colder waters
Longer-range computer models show increased shear over much of the basin for next week. The Caribbean still appears to be an area that will have favorable development conditions due to very warm waters and low shear.
However, there will likely be several days before a tropical wave over the middle of the Atlantic currently reaches this area.
Dienstag, 1. Oktober 2013
Raus aus der Werft . . .
Schaden am Traktor . . . Schraube verloren . . .
weiter gehts . . .
vorsicht . . Kabel!!
da muss er hin . . .
und hinein ins Nass . . .
auf nach Bavaro.
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly meander through the central Atlantic. It remains the only organized tropical system across the Atlantic Basin, but we continue to watch an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea for possible development.
Recent satellite imagery shows that Jerry is being impacted by wind shear from the north which is hampering further development. The center of circulation has also drifted southward over the last few hours. Steering flow will remain weak over the next 24 to 48 hours and Jerry will continue to slowly drift around the central Atlantic and not affect land. Toward the end of the week, we expect Jerry will turn more to the north and east as steering winds increase due to a storm system approaching from the west. We do not expect Jerry to become a threat to any land mass at least through this week.
A second area of interest is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave situated across the western Caribbean. These showers and thunderstorms could become better organized as they drift northwestward and then northward into and through the northern Caribbean through midweek. An enhanced threat for heavier showers and thunderstorms will continue in Jamaica and central and western Cuba today as deeper tropical moisture moves through. We expect to see showers and thunderstorms with drenching downpours move into the Yucatan Peninsula by Wednesday.
After that, this will likely migrate into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. This feature will have to be watched closely as a depression or storm can form in this area while the wave tracks westward. The waters all across the western Caribbean are very warm, about 86 degrees F and are generally 83-86 degrees in the Gulf of Mexico, so there is plenty of fuel available for any tropical cyclone that might form in this area.
There are currently no other areas of concern in the Atlantic Basin.