Wave Bringing Heavy Rain to Central America

Invest 93 L

A tropical wave we have been tracking for days has became much better organized over the past 24 hours. Thunderstorms increased in coverage and intensity across the western Caribbean. Upper-level winds relaxed, lessening the shear. As a result, good outflow was present over the thunderstorms from late Sunday into this morning.


An apparent center of this feature can be seen in the infrared satellite loop this morning just north of Honduras. The system is expected to move westward and over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by tonight. There is a short window of time during the day today that the system could develop into a tropical depression before it moves over land. The interaction with land will certainly hinder chances for significant development.

Even though significant tropical development is not expected, it will bring widespread heavy rainfall to parts of Central America and southern Mexico today through Tuesday. So, deadly flooding is a big concern. This feature could reorganize over the southern Bay of Campeche towards the middle of the week, but it will likely remain too far south to have any impact on the U.S.

There are no other areas of concern across the Tropical Atlantic. The Inter Tropical Convergence has been pushed very far to the south, south of 10 degrees north. Also, there is a widespread area of Saharan dust extending from the Africa coast to the Lesser Antilles. This Saharan dust will help to limit thunderstorm activity north of 10 degrees north for at least the next few days. There is a weak tropical wave near 55 west, south of 10 north. There are no other areas of concern across the tropical Atlantic at this time.