New Depression Approaching Belize

A tropical wave that we have been tracking across the Caribbean for the last few days has gained a circulation and is now classified as Tropical Depression 2. The center of the depression will move into Belize this afternoon. While no significant strengthening will occur before the center moves ashore, if it becomes any stronger it would be a tropical storm and be named Barry. The main impact of the depression will be heavy rainfall over Belize as well as portions of Mexico and Guatemala that will lead to flash flooding and mudslides.

 

 

 

 

Once ashore, the depression will remain weak and could even dissipate, but it more likely will just continue to generate heavy rainfall. By tomorrow afternoon, the center will likely move over the Bay of Campeche. This would give the depression an opportunity to strengthen again. It will have its best chance to become a named system once in this area. From there, this system will move into eastern Mexico and bring locally strong wind and very heavy rainfall that can again cause flooding and mudslides.

This system will remain too far south to have any direct impact on the United States, but it will help to steer rich tropical moisture into Deep South Texas starting at midweek.

There are no other areas of concern across the Tropical Atlantic. The Inter Tropical Convergence has been pushed very far to the south, south of 10 degrees north. Also, there is a widespread area of Saharan dust extending from the Africa coast to the Lesser Antilles. This Saharan dust will help to limit thunderstorm activity north of 10 degrees north for at least the next few days. There are a couple of weak tropical waves to track, one near 58 west, south of 13 north, the other near 45 west south of 13 north. These two waves will bring brisk winds and showers to the Lesser Antilles over the next day or two. There are no other areas of concern across the tropical Atlantic at this time.