Tropischer Sturm Leslie zieht nördlich

Tropischer Sturm Leslie schlägt Haken nach Norden.

Leslie springt nach Norden.

Glücklicherweise bewegt sich der Tropische Sturm Leslie nördlich von uns weg, so wie die Vorhersagemodelle es angekündigt haben. Praktisch in letzter Minute dreht Leslie ab und soll langsamer aber in nördliche Richtung weiterziehen mit Windgeschwindigkeiten von momentan ca. 95 km/h die sich innerhalb von 120 Stunden noch bis zu 140 km/h aufbauen sollen.

Statement:

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 03, 2012

The GFS-based SHIPS model is currently indicating more than 20 kt of
west-northwesterly vertical shear on the cyclone...which appears to
be overdone due to the 500 km radius used by that model to compute
shear. The latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates only about 15
kt of shear...which seems more reasonable given the tremendous
amount of deep convection that has persisted since the previous
advisory. The SHIPS model is forecasting the shear to increase to
near 30 kt from the northwest over the next 24 hours. Although
these shear values may be somewhat overdone...even an increase in
to around 20 kt should be enough to hinder the intensification
process for the next 24-36 hours. After that...however...the shear
is forecast to gradually subside and all of the global models build
an upper-level ridge over Leslie as the cyclone moves between the
upper-level low over the Bahamas and a digging trough along 50w on
days 4 and 5. This flow pattern should create conditions more
conducive for intensification.  The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory...except at day 5 where the
forecast is higher...based on a blend of the SHIPS and HWRF models.

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201212.disc.html#2DwKMMVg0bTcymS4.99