Tropical Storm Karen Forms; Jerry Fading

An area of low pressure in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico has been officially named as Tropical Storm Karen. It is located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula, moving north-northwestward. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 mph.

Karen will track northward across the central Gulf of Mexico the next 24 hours then move on a more northeasterly course later tomorrow through Saturday. Current model output takes the system into an area between Gulfport, Miss., and Panama City, Florida late Saturday night or Sunday morning.

The storm has undergone rapid intensification and this intensification process appears to be over. The storm is encountering moderate wind shear causing the upper level part to be tilted into the northeast. The stronger thunderstorms and wind are displaced to the east and northeast of the low level center. This tilted structure and continued shear will limit and perhaps prevent further intensification.

However, if the shear decreases for a few hours it might have an opportunity to reach hurricane strength. Recent satellite images show the low level center exposed well west of the stronger thunderstorms suggesting that won't happen anytime soon. As the system approaches the coast Saturday night, it will encounter even stronger shear causing the storm to weaken.

The main impact from Karen will be heavy rainfall along the central and eastern Gulf coast Saturday and Saturday night. Since this area has experienced above normal rainfall the past couple of months flooding might occur over some areas that don't normally experience flooding. Despite weakening Karen will bring rough surf along the west coast of Florida westward to the southeast Louisiana coast leading to a high risk of rip currents, coastal flooding and beach erosion. Tropical storm-force winds will arrive along the coast later Saturday, Saturday night into Sunday morning.

There is also the possibility of severe weather, including isolated tornadoes, as Karen makes landfall, especially east of the storm center. Once inland, it will spin down and become a big rainmaker for the southeast and eastern U.S. Sunday into early next week.

Jerry has weakened to a depression and will become a non-tropical sheared low pressure area within a few days as it moves over colder waters
Longer-range computer models show increased shear over much of the basin for next week. The Caribbean still appears to be an area that will have favorable development conditions due to very warm waters and low shear.

However, there will likely be several days before a tropical wave over the middle of the Atlantic currently reaches this area.