Watching a Few Features Across the Atlantic

There are a few features of interest.

 

 

We still have no organized tropical systems to track in the Atlantic basin. There are a few features of interest, but it is unlikely that we see any of them develop further. The general rule across the basin is that high amounts of wind shear and dry air from the Saharan Dust layer continue to dominate the basin and prohibit tropical development. In the longer range, the shear and dust may begin to lessen and allow for more conducive conditions for tropical development.

In the meantime, we do not expect any tropical development in the next 48 hours or so, but we are still keeping our eye on a couple of features. The first is a weak area of low pressure over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Current satellite imagery shows very little in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low pressure center. As this area of low pressure tracks off to the west, it will move through a zone of higher wind shear and thus tropical development is highly unlikely.

Another feature of interest is an upper-level low centered in the central Bahamas. The low will track to the west across Cuba and South Florida through Thursday night and then move westward across the Gulf of Mexico Friday and Saturday. Along the path of this low, there can be locally enhanced rainfall across parts of Cuba, the Bahamas and South Florida over the next day or two.

There is an outside chance that this could transition to a tropical cyclone while crossing the Gulf of Mexico, but it is rare for this to occur. The low should move into northern Mexico and South Texas Sunday night, hopefully causing beneficial rains.