Hurricane Sandy kurz vor Landfall

Hurricane Sandy wird in der kommenden Nacht auf Land treffen.

 

Sandy continues to maintain an area of deep convection near the
center...with an eye occasionally visible on satellite imagery. 
Although the satellite presentation of the system is not very
impressive...SFMR measurements...flight-level winds...and dropsonde
data from the Air Force hurricane hunters indicate that the winds
have increased to near 75 kt.  Since the hurricane will traverse
the Gulf Stream this morning...and the shear is not too strong at
this time...some more strengthening as a tropical cyclone is
possible in the next few hours.  However...the main mechanism
for intensification later today should be baroclinic forcing.  The
official wind speed forecast is close to the latest GFS prediction
as that model should be able to handle the evolution of this type
of system fairly well.
 
 


 

Surface data indicate that a well-marked warm and cold front lie not
far to the north and west of the center of Sandy.  As the
circulation interacts with these fronts...the cyclone should become
extratropical later today.  Extratropical transition is expected to
be complete before the center crosses the coast.  However...this
transformation will not diminish the overall impacts from winds to
hurricane strength...life-threatening storm surge...and flooding
rains associated with this dangerous weather system.  Based on the
global models...the cyclone should weaken fairly rapidly after
landfall.
 
Center fixes indicate that Sandy is now moving northward or about
360/13...as it begins to rotate around a mid- to upper-level
cyclone over the southeastern United States.  As it moves between
the cyclone and a highly anomalous mid-tropospheric ridge near
Atlantic Canada...Sandy should turn northwestward and
west-northwestward with some further increase in forward speed.
This track should result in the center making landfall in the
mid-Atlantic states this evening or tonight.  After landfall...the
dynamical guidance shows a significant slowing of forward speed as
the system merges with the mid- to upper-level cyclone.
 
 
 

 












Sandy now moving north-northwestward and accelerating...
...Expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and coastal
hurricane winds plus heavy appalachian snows...
 
 
location...36.8n 71.1w
about 265 mi...425 km se of Atlantic City New Jersey
about 310 mi...505 km SSE of New York City
maximum sustained winds...85 mph...140 km/h
present movement...NNW or 330 degrees at 20 mph...32 km/h
minimum central pressure...946 mb...27.94 inches
 
 
 
 
at 800 am EDT...1200 UTC...the center of Hurricane Sandy was located
near latitude 36.8 north...longitude 71.1 west. Sandy is now moving
toward the north-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/h.  A turn toward the
northwest is expected later this morning...followed by a turn toward
the west-northwest tonight.  On the forecast track...the center of
Sandy will move over the coast of the mid-Atlantic states this
evening or tonight.
 
Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph...140 km/h...with
higher gusts. Sandy is expected to transition into a frontal or
wintertime low pressure system prior to landfall. However...this
transition will not be accompanied by a weakening of the system...
and in fact...a little strengthening is possible during this
process. Sandy is expected to weaken after moving inland.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km...from
the center...and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485
miles...780 km.  Sustained tropical-storm-force winds are occurring
along the coasts of southern New Jersey...Delaware...and eastern
Virginia...and extend as far inland as the central and southern
Chesapeake Bay. 
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from hurricane hunter
aircraft data is 946 mb...27.94 inches.