Septemberhurricane Leslie und Michael

Die tropischen Stürme Leslie und Michael sind in der Entwicklung zum Hurricane.

Tropischer Sturm Leslie wird als Hurricane der Kategorie 2 über die Bermudas ziehen.

Nachdem der tropische Sturm Leslie an den Antillen vorbei gleitete, wird er nach kurzer Abschwächung wieder an Geschwindigkeit und Kraft zunehmen. Laut den Vorausberechnungen der verschiedenen Modele wird er als Hurricane der Kategorie 2 über die Bermuda - Inseln hinwegfegen.

Statement vom 05.09.2012

Leslie is a large tropical cyclone and is forecast to grow in size
during the next several days. The wind field of the cyclone...
combined with its expected slow motion...will help to generate
large long-period swells that will propagate away from the tropical
cyclone toward Bermuda and much of the U.S. East Coast for the
remainder of this week.

Topischer Sturm Michael

Der Tropische Sturm Michael hat seine Entwicklung nach einem kuriosen Tanz auf dem Atlantik verfestigt. Laut Vorhersagemodelle wird er sich zum Hurricane der Kategorie 1 entwickeln und ohne Landfall zu haben weiter nördlich in kühleren Gewässern seiner Auflösung entgegenzusehen.

Statement am 05.09.2012

Deep convection continues to pulsate near and east of the estimated center location...however the convective canopy is somewhat elongated toward the northeast. The initial intensity remains 45 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model indicate that west-northwesterly shear of about 20 kt is affecting the cyclone...and this shear is expected to continue for the next day or so. During that time...only slight strengthening is shown by most of the intensity guidance...and this trend is reflected in the NHC forecast. The shear should begin to decrease by 48 hours...and the environment appears favorable for some intensification by that time. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the ivcn intensity consensus through the period

The initial motion estimate is 360/04...as Michael appears to be responding to a shortwave trough passing to the north. Once the trough moves by in about 48 hours...the global models show a ridge building to the northwest and then to the north of the tropical cyclone...which should result in a slow northwestward motion at days 3 through 5. The new NHC track is along but a little faster than the previous forecast through 72 hours. After that time the NHC forecast has been shifted a little to the right and lies between the ECMWF and GFS models.

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201213.disc.html#DaozEGVJVlxP8gsl.99