Die tropischen Stürme Leslie und Michael sind in der Entwicklung zum Hurricane.
Tropischer Sturm Leslie wird als Hurricane der Kategorie 2 über die Bermudas ziehen.
Nachdem der tropische Sturm Leslie an den Antillen vorbei gleitete, wird er nach kurzer Abschwächung wieder an Geschwindigkeit und Kraft zunehmen. Laut den Vorausberechnungen der verschiedenen Modele wird er als Hurricane der Kategorie 2 über die Bermuda - Inseln hinwegfegen.
Statement vom 05.09.2012
Leslie is a large tropical cyclone and is forecast to grow in size
during the next several days. The wind field of the cyclone...
combined with its expected slow motion...will help to generate
large long-period swells that will propagate away from the tropical
cyclone toward Bermuda and much of the U.S. East Coast for the
remainder of this week.
Topischer Sturm Michael
Der Tropische Sturm Michael hat seine Entwicklung nach einem kuriosen Tanz auf dem Atlantik verfestigt. Laut Vorhersagemodelle wird er sich zum Hurricane der Kategorie 1 entwickeln und ohne Landfall zu haben weiter nördlich in kühleren Gewässern seiner Auflösung entgegenzusehen.
Statement am 05.09.2012
Deep convection continues to pulsate near and east of the estimated
center location...however the convective canopy is somewhat
elongated toward the northeast. The initial intensity remains 45 kt
in agreement with the latest satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB.
UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model indicate that west-northwesterly shear
of about 20 kt is affecting the cyclone...and this shear is expected
to continue for the next day or so. During that time...only slight
strengthening is shown by most of the intensity guidance...and this
trend is reflected in the NHC forecast. The shear should begin to
decrease by 48 hours...and the environment appears favorable for
some intensification by that time. The new NHC intensity forecast
is close to the ivcn intensity consensus through the period
The initial motion estimate is 360/04...as Michael appears to be
responding to a shortwave trough passing to the north. Once the
trough moves by in about 48 hours...the global models show a ridge
building to the northwest and then to the north of the tropical
cyclone...which should result in a slow northwestward motion at
days 3 through 5. The new NHC track is along but a little faster
than the previous forecast through 72 hours. After that time the
NHC forecast has been shifted a little to the right and lies
between the ECMWF and GFS models.
