Bertha is a sheared tropical cyclone with the center located on the western edge of the deep convection as indicated by satellite. The low-level circulation continues to be vigorous, but given the current westerly shear the outflow is very limited. There are no reasons to change the initial intensity which is kept at 40 knots. Another Air Force reconnaissance plane will investigate Bertha in the next several hours.The current shear environment is not particularly favorable for strengthening, but there are some indications by the global models that the shear could decrease some as Bertha moves across the northeastern Caribbean Sea. This should allow some slight intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Once Bertha's circulation moves away from Hispaniola beyond 48 hours, there is an opportunity for additional strengthening if the shear becomes lighter as suggested by global and statistical models. At this time, the NHC forecast keeps Bertha with 45-knot winds over the western Atlantic until it becomes more certain that the shear could subside.Bertha continues racing toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 17 knots. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge which is forecast to persist. Once in the western Atlantic near the eastern Bahamas, Bertha will be steered by the southerly flow between the subtropical high and a mid-level trough over the eastern United States. This pattern will force Bertha to turn northward with a decrease in forward speed and to eventually recurve northeastward over the Atlantic.The confidence in the track forecast, primarily in the next 2 to 3 days, is high since most the guidance is tightly clustered. The confidence decreases after 3 days when the guidance becomes divergent. The track envelope, however, brings Bertha northward and then northeastward over the Atlantic, and the NHC forecast follows closely the multi-model consensus.
Freitag, 1. August 2014
Tropical Storm Bertha
Dienstag, 1. Juli 2014
Tropical Depression One Forms off the Coast of East Florida
The Atlantic's first tropical depression of 2014 is here, as Tropical Depression One finally formed at 11 pm EDT Monday evening from disturbance 91L. TD 1 was drifting southwest at 2 mph towards the east coast of Central Florida early Tuesday morning. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida on Tuesday morning showed that bands of heavy rain from TD 1 were affecting the Northwest Bahamas, and sustained winds of 33 mph gusting to 36 mph were observed at Settlement Point in the Northwest Bahama Islands at 2 am EDT.
Satellite loops showed heavy thunderstorms were limited to the south side of TD 1's center of circulation, and were slowly increasing in intensity and areal coverage. The counter-clockwise circulation of an upper level high pressure over Florida was bringing northerly winds over TD 1 at high altitude, and these winds were creating moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots. Water vapor satellite loops showed very dry air to the north of TD 1, and the northerly winds were driving this dry air in the heart of the storm, interfering with development, and keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will investigate TD 1 on Tuesday morning, and the NOAA jet is scheduled to fly Tuesday afternoon.
Samstag, 21. Juni 2014
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook for the Remainder of June
There were no tropical cyclones anywhere in the world on Friday, and
none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis in
the Atlantic (European, GFS, and UKMET) is predicting development over
the coming five days. There is a tropical disturbance off the east coast
of Florida that radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows some spin to. However, satellite loops show the area of heavy thunderstorms is very limited, and there is a lot of dry air interfering with thunderstorm development. Wind shear
is a moderate 10 knots. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather
Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of
10%. The disturbance will likely head northeast out to sea over the
weekend.
Vertical wind shear is predicted to be very high over most of the tropical Atlantic the remainder of June, reducing the odds of tropical storm formation. With the active thunderstorm area of the MJO predicted to remain over the Pacific Ocean the rest of June, this will favor dry, sinking air over the Atlantic, further discouraging tropical storms from forming.
Hurricane Forecast for the Remainder of June
Vertical wind shear is predicted to be very high over most of the tropical Atlantic the remainder of June, reducing the odds of tropical storm formation. With the active thunderstorm area of the MJO predicted to remain over the Pacific Ocean the rest of June, this will favor dry, sinking air over the Atlantic, further discouraging tropical storms from forming.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which are close to average
over the Caribbean (an anomaly of +0.1°F) and cooler than average over
the Gulf of Mexico (an anomaly of -0.2°F) will do no favors for any
potential June tropical storms that try to form. If development does
occur in June, the most likely location would be off the east coast of
Florida, between the Bahamas and Bermuda, where SSTs are slightly above
average and wind shear will be lower. Storms that form in this region
are typically only a threat to Bermuda.
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, six of the nineteen years (32%) did not have a named storm develop in June. I give an 80% chance that 2014 will join that list. The most recent year without a June named storm developing was the El Niño year of 2009. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. There were two June named storms in 2013, Andrea and Barry.
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, six of the nineteen years (32%) did not have a named storm develop in June. I give an 80% chance that 2014 will join that list. The most recent year without a June named storm developing was the El Niño year of 2009. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. There were two June named storms in 2013, Andrea and Barry.
Donnerstag, 29. Mai 2014
Temblor Punta Cana - Mona Canal
El temblor fue de 6 grados y se produjeron cinco réplicas.
Hasta ayer en la noche no se habían reportado daños materiales y tampoco humano, según el Centro de Operaciones de Emergencia (COE), organismo que llamó a la calma.
En un reporte preliminar, el COE informó, además, que el sismo se sintió en las provincias de La Altagracia, El Seibo, Hato Mayor, La Romana, San Pedro de Macorís y el Gran Santo Domingo.
En su primera informaciòn la pàgina web del Servicio Geològico de Estados Unidos dio a conocer que el movimiento telùrico fue de 5.3 grados y màs tarde corrigiò que fue de 5.8 grados.
Entrevistado vìa telefònica, Andrés Moreta, del Sismològico de la UASD, informò que el epicentro del temblor se produjo en la latitud 18.5 y longitude 68.2.
Reporte de la agencia EFE indican que el sismo se sintiò tambièn en la zona metropolitana de San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Cinco réplicas ayer
Cinco réplicas se han registrado del sismo de 6 grados en la escala de Richter que se produjo en la tarde de hoy próximo a la provincia La Altagracia y que se sintió en gran parte del país.
Los movimientos telúricos han sido dos de 3.6, otro de 3.3, uno de 3.4 y de 3.0, según Andrés Moreta, analista de datos sísmico del Centro Nacional de Sismología (antiguo Instituto Sismológico de la Universidad Autónoma de Santo Domingo (UASD)
El temblor de 6 grados se produjo a las 5:15 de la tarde de hoy, en el Canal de la Mona y a 31 kilómetros de Boca de Yuma, en La Altagravcia, sin que se hayan reportado daños.
Moreta informó que veinte minutos después se registró una réplica de 3.6 grados en la latitud 17.93 y longitud 68.35, a unos 46 kilómetros al sureste de Mano Juan, en la Isla Saona, con epicentro en el mar Caribe y con una profundidad de 77 kilómetros
La segunda réplica fue a las 6:29 de la tarde, de 3.3 grados a 42 kilómetros al sureste de Punta Cana, también con epicentro en el Canal de la Mona y con una profundidad de 100 kilómetros.
El tercer temblor se produjo a las 6: 58 de la tarde, de 3 grados, con epicentro en el océano Atlántico y a 32 kilómetros al noreste de Las Terrenas. Otro de los eventos sísmicos fue a las 7:43 de la tarde, de 3.4 y al sureste de Mano Juan, en el mar Caribe, con una profundidad de 90 kilómetros.
A las 9:12 de la noche también se registró movimiento telúrico, de 3.6 en el mar Caribe y a 40 kilómetros de Mano Juan. Este tuvo una profundidad de 95 kilómetros.
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