No Organized Tropical Systems
The Atlantic Basin remains quiet and we expect no organized tropical weather in the near future.
There are three organized tropical waves, near 85W, between 60-65W and between 30-35W. These are all moving west and the two eastern-most waves are encountering a lot of dry air aloft.
Active showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across portions of the Gulf of Mexico this week. These have been occurring due to a persistent surface and upper-level trough interacting with rich moisture. The northern end of this trough has caused excessive rain in the past 24 to 48 hours in the Florida Panhandle, exceeding 12 inches in spots. While there have been weak areas of surface low pressures along this trough in the Gulf of Mexico, strong shear has prevented any organization. We expect that strong winds aloft will continue over this region continuing to prevent development even as the trough retrogrades to the west the next couple of days.
An upper-level low now near 23N, 60W is moving west-southwest with a small area of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. All models continue to move this low underneath the ridge that exists in the western Atlantic with this low approaching the northern Bahamas/southeastern Florida on Monday, then moving across Florida on Tuesday/Wednesday. There is nothing at this point indicating any tropical surface low development with this feature, but it could enhance showers and thunderstorms over portions of Florida next week.
