Hurricane Forecast for the Remainder of June
Vertical wind shear is predicted to be very high over most of the tropical Atlantic the remainder of June, reducing the odds of tropical storm formation. With the active thunderstorm area of the MJO predicted to remain over the Pacific Ocean the rest of June, this will favor dry, sinking air over the Atlantic, further discouraging tropical storms from forming.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which are close to average
over the Caribbean (an anomaly of +0.1°F) and cooler than average over
the Gulf of Mexico (an anomaly of -0.2°F) will do no favors for any
potential June tropical storms that try to form. If development does
occur in June, the most likely location would be off the east coast of
Florida, between the Bahamas and Bermuda, where SSTs are slightly above
average and wind shear will be lower. Storms that form in this region
are typically only a threat to Bermuda.
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, six of the nineteen years (32%) did not have a named storm develop in June. I give an 80% chance that 2014 will join that list. The most recent year without a June named storm developing was the El Niño year of 2009. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. There were two June named storms in 2013, Andrea and Barry.
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, six of the nineteen years (32%) did not have a named storm develop in June. I give an 80% chance that 2014 will join that list. The most recent year without a June named storm developing was the El Niño year of 2009. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. There were two June named storms in 2013, Andrea and Barry.